When I hear people say they don’t have insurance because they don’t think anything will happen, it makes me think of Groundhog Day.
No, not the Bill Murray movie “Groundhog Day”, although working in an insurance agency does make you very conscious of not coming off like Ned “The Head” Ryerson, with his over-the-top effort to ingratiate himself to potential clients.
No, it reminds me of Groundhog Day, as in February 2nd – which you may have noticed is coming up. It is the day otherwise rational people go all-in with a rodent’s seeing or not seeing his shadow in planning the next couple months of their lives. If “Punxsutawney Phil” sees his shadow, they say, then buckle up because winter will go on for another six weeks. If he doesn’t, then relief – the onset of spring – is almost within our grasp.
But how many times have the good people of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania assured us “The groundhog has seen his shadow! You can put away that thick frumpy coat! You can bring your warm-weather clothes out from storage again!” only to find that Old Man Winter had other plans?
I’ll tell you how many times.
Phil has been making springtime prophecies since 1887, and since then, of the fifteen times Phil has predicted an early spring, he has been correct seven times. That is about 47 percent accuracy. His over-all accuracy percentage is in the high thirties. This is according to The Groundhog Club’s records of Phil’s predictions, compared to Stormfax Almanac weather statistics.
Statistics always have their exceptions. That is why they are not called absolutes. Such is the case with insurance. For example, you can say that – statistically speaking – you are very unlikely to have a fire in your home. But even if you are 90 percent likely to not have a fire due to meticulous precautions you’ve taken, you are still 10 percent likely to have a fire!
The only difference is that in the groundhog/winter clothes scenario, if Phil is wrong, you just have to bring some of your stuff back out of storage again.
Depressing? Maybe. A waste of a small part of your well-earned weekend? Probably. But overall not that big of a deal.
Gambling on insurance coverage based on your assumption that nothing will happen is another thing altogether.
Horihan Insurance agents make a point to go over your options with you, providing practical advice on the pros and cons of increasing or decreasing your coverage so you fully understand the ramifications of your choice. To be clear, it is always your choice, but we want you to feel comfortable with it. If you decide you are not, there is always the chance to adjust it, but we strongly prefer that you leave our office with that “all set” feeling when you buy or renew insurance with us.
And so, as we await the verdict of Punxsutawney Phil, may your spring come early, and may your cares be few.